New HIV Drug to Become Leading Treatment by 2016

The antiretroviral drug Tivicay, will become the leading integrase inhibitor for the treatment of HIV by 2016, according to independent analyst firm Datamonitor Healthcare. It is expected to generate annual sales of up to $2.1 bilion by 2022 in the US, Japan and five major EU markets*, equating to 12.6% of the total combined value of these markets.

Tivicay, which was recently approved in the US, had better efficacy than the protease inhibitor Prezista in clinical trials, and comparable efficacy with current integrase inhibitor standard of care Isentress. It is predicted that the drug will have a huge impact on the market following EU approval.

Dr Joseph Hedden, analyst at Datamonitor Healthcare said: “Unlike a number of its competitors, Tivicay doesn’t require co-dosing with a boosting agent. It also has a very attractive resistance profile. In the next few years, we are expecting these attributes to propel the drug into first place in terms of integrase inhibitor sales.”

The combined sales value of HIV drugs in the seven major markets** is expected to increase by 40% in the next decade, rising from $11.9 bilion in 2013 to $16.8 billion in 2022. It is forecast that the market will peak at $17.3 billion in 2020 after a strong period of growth stimulated by new drug launches and the increasing prevalence of HIV.

Between the forecast dates, the global patient population for HIV is expected to increase slowly, from 1.23 million in 2013 to just under 1.4 million in 2022. Out of the five major EU markets*, the UK will remain largest by patient number over the next decade, with the patient population estimated to be 135 million by 2022. The projected annual growth rate for the UK is 6.2%, the fastest of all the major markets**.

*5 major EU markets — France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK

** 7 major markets — US, Japan and the 5 major EU markets