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23 Aug 2013

China and India Epidemic Grows: Diabetes Drug Revenue to More Than Double by 2022

The type 2 diabetes drug market will climb in value by 145% in just 10 years, and prevalence of the condition across India and China is likely to soar to worrying levels, predicts research and consulting firm GlobalData.

According to the company’s new report*, revenue for the type 2 diabetes treatment sector across the world’s 10 major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, India and Brazil) will increase from $28 billion in 2012 to $69 billion in 2022, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.4%. During this period the US is expected to remain the largest market by some margin, with revenue jumping from $16 billion to $39 billion over the forecast period.

But while the US market eclipses all others in terms of value, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes is far greater across Asia, with 71% of the global diagnosed diabetic population living on the continent.

Already home to the world’s largest number of type 2 diabetes sufferers, the number of people with the condition in India is expected to soar from 94 million in 2012 to 182 million in 2022, states a GlobalData forecast. At an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 9.2%, the diagnosis of new cases is expected to outpace all other countries covered in the report, resulting in a larger diabetic population in India than the nine remaining countries combined.

China is also expected to witness a dramatic increase in type 2 diabetes prevalence in the near future, with the number of sufferers climbing from 39 million in 2012 to 72 million 10 years later, representing an AGR of 8.4%.

However, due to comparatively under-developed healthcare sectors and a high penetration of substantially cheaper generic drugs, GlobalData forecasts the combined markets of India and China to claim just 21% of the world’s type 2 diabetes therapeutics market by 2022.

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