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17 Jan 2014

Gastrointe?stinal Therapeuti?cs Industry: Promising Drugs in Late-Stage Developmen?t Could Stabilise Declining Global Market

The gastrointestinal (GI) therapeutics market for irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), ulcerative colitis (UC), and Crohn’s disease (CD) in the eight major markets (8MM) — the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Canada and Japan — is expected to decrease in value from $6.8 billion in 2012 to $6.6 billion by 2019, at a negative Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.3%, forecasts business intelligence provider GBI Research.


According to the firm’s latest report*, the GI market will register different CAGRs across the 8MM during the forecast period. The US and Japan will witness positive CAGRs of 0.2% and 4%, respectively, while the European markets will decline at a negative CAGR of 2.5%. This unfavourable growth is due to the upcoming patent expiry of various major drugs.


Arti Singh, Analyst for GBI Research, says: “As Humira and Remicade account for a substantial share of the GI therapeutics industry, their patent expiries will harm the overall market value. The entry of generics and biosimilars will also have a strong impact on sales.”


However, promising pipeline drugs in the late stages of development could stabilize the current market.


Singh continues: “Three molecules in the pre-registration stage of development are expected to be approved during the forecast period. Of these molecules, one — vedolizumab — is indicated for the treatment of both UC and CD. The second molecule is a biosimilar of blockbuster drug Remicade (infliximab) and is expected to be launched following Remicade’s patent expiry.”


In addition, almost 51% of the overall GI pipeline is in Phase II and Phase III development, of which 19 molecules are indicated for the treatment of IBS, 48 for UC and 41 for CD.


“The major factors currently stabilizing the market include the increasing prevalence of GI diseases, growing awareness of the importance of detecting these diseases early and the availability of effective diagnostics,” the analyst concludes.


*Gastrointestinal Therapeutics in Major Developed Markets to 2019 — New Drug Approvals and Promising Pipeline to Counter Declines from Patent Expiries

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